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Oil production - the only way is up

Remember those 1970s scare stories about the world running out of oil? 

I can't remember if it came before or after the "we're-heading-for-a-new-ice-age" scare.  But the idea was that oil would run dry - then the lights would dim, cars run dry and plastic grow scare.

Thirty years on and there's more oil derived energy being used in more homes by millions more people.  Car ownership has been extended to people who twenty years back couldn't afford a bicycle.  It's too much plastic that's the problem, not too little.  Far from running out, more reserves of oil and fossil fuel have become available than ever in human history.

Why have the doom-merchants been quite so wrong?  Later day adherents of Jacques Rousseau, the nay-sayers consistently under-rate technology.  It is technology that allows us to find and access new deposits of oil, and lets us utilise what we find more efficiently.

On a recent trip to Uganda, I was curious to learn more about the estimated 2 billion barrels recently discovered there.  Heritage Oil let me visit one of their drilling sites.   There’s vast potential – and done properly, it could be a great benefit to millions of people around the world.    

If oil does present us with geo-political challenges, perhaps it won’t be problems posed by shortages, but rather those created by abundant discoveries that'll be the headache.

Posted on 10 November 2009 by Douglas Carswell

Comments

But just imagine what a state we would be in if all the decisions about exploiting oil took as long to make as our Government's decisions about nuclear energy.

Posted on 10 November 2009 11:57 by Mark Forster

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

Posted on 10 November 2009 13:20 by cynicalHighlander

Douglas, the "world running out of oil" scares are not merely a feature of the 1970s. If you dig a little deeper into the underlying tactics of the Green Enviro-Militant Tendency, you'll see that "peak oil" is the scare waiting in reserve, ready to be deployed when the "catastrophic anthropognic climate change" fox is finally shot.

The peak oil theorists have called the peak 3 times now in recent years alone, in 2000, 2002, and 2005, and they've been wrong each time. The theory conveniently discounts proven reserves that are currently uneconomic on the price vs. extraction cost equation, and those reserves on which the environmental lobby itself has managed to get an exploitation moratorium. So it's a fundamentally dishonest postulate.

And of course it assumes no future discoveries, no future technological developments to make currently inaccessible reserves extractable, no currently uneconomic reserves becoming so because of price movement, and no development of substitutes or alternatives.

You are so correct in quoting Rousseau on this - in the same way that Malthus predicted (spectacularly incorrectly) that the world would run out of food.

Posted on 10 November 2009 13:57 by Michael St George

Really Really Really BAD timing for this blog post Douglas!!!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency

Posted on 10 November 2009 14:46 by Tom


Have you seen the technology that gets gass from shale deposits. There is loads of energy out there.

Posted on 10 November 2009 15:01 by Rob H

Bad timing, eh?

Almost as bad as the news in today's Telegraph essay about record finds of oil deposits?

Posted on 10 November 2009 15:16 by Douglas Carswell MP

Read
http://gregor.us/
and obviously
http://europe.theoildrum.com/
but Gregor should put you right.
'Peak oil' is about production rates, not running out of oil and we are there.

Posted on 10 November 2009 15:44 by BrianSJ

The whole Peak Oil theory is goobledegook. It depends on the oil price. We may well have passed "peak oil" production at an extraction price of $1 per barrel because we've extracted the easy reserves - but we're nowhere near it at $100 per barrel. It all depends, and, as your other correspondents say, technology is improving all the time and moving the goal posts.

As Sheikh Yamani said, the stone age didn't end because they ran out of stone, and the oil age won't end because we run out of oil.

Posted on 10 November 2009 17:36 by Alfred T Mahan

Kazakhstan puts a big hole in any argument they ever had, and getting bigger . . .

Market instability suits some people, to your credit you haven't joined them.

Posted on 10 November 2009 21:05 by Quietzapple

Isn't the figure of interest the amount of energy gained per unit of energy spent in the process of acquisition? (including exploration, drilling, transportation, refining etc.) - rather than production 'rates' as such?

Doomsayers have their own agenda - profit motives, in a good number of cases - but energy does look set to become more expensive over time and that's a very big deal indeed.

Posted on 10 November 2009 23:16 by constructive interference

Do you think there might also just be some negatives from using all this oil?

"done properly, it could be a great benefit to millions of people around the world."

I'm surprised to see such comments with no mention of carbon costs...

Posted on 11 November 2009 00:25 by Chris

The first peak oil scare was in the 1850s (they expected to run out of whales - the only source then). As has been pointed out the eco-fascist in the Guardian are still doi8ng them. They are consistently predicted for 5-10 years from date of publication. Like all eco-fascist scare stories they have proven wholly untrue. We are at the stage where we will shortly be growing oil from algae, possibly in floating deep ocean sites. We will NEVER run out of oil.

Posted on 11 November 2009 15:29 by Neil Craig

Of more concern is that ours is running out, we will be importing over 60% of our oil needs by 2012, providing we have the money.
There are some interesting developments in algae being turned into bio-diesel and so on, which may be the next step. New oil extraction technology tends to speed up the decline rate of a field, so it is not an answer in itself.

Posted on 11 November 2009 16:41 by Jim

"Bad timing, eh?

Almost as bad as the news in today's Telegraph essay about record finds of oil deposits? "

We will always keep finding deposits. But as you know, oil is a finite resource, and we have found most of the "easy" stuff.

Peak oil is all about *production rates*, and energy returned on energy invested (EROEI)

These are really important concepts to grasp - before you reassure yourself about recent big discoveries! I know you want to see both sides of the argument, and you only care about what is right/truthful so I'd suggest some further research before you poo poo "peak oil" - it is simply a question of when.

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer

Posted on 11 November 2009 21:27 by Tom

Who knows how much cheaper renewables will become, or more efficient appliances will be engineered and invented?

Or our lifestyle choices, perhaps under pressure, become?

Big world, big future.

Posted on 11 November 2009 22:18 by Quietzapple

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