2010 predictions; political pendulum stays broken

Traditionally, when a governing party loses support, the principal opposition party has tended to win popularity by an almost identical margin. This pendulum effect meant that Labour's loss was the Conservative's gain - and vice versa.

Numerous bemused commentators think as if the pendulum ought still to exist. Many politicians act as though its see-saw effect remained with us.

At the 2005 election, most of Labour's lost votes didn't go to the Conservatives at all. In 2010, making certain that Labour unpopularity translates into Conservative support means not just giving people positive reasons to back us. Nor is it enough to say what we'd like to do. We need to give folk some indication as to how we'll actually be doing it.

In this age of anti-politics, the tactics of triangulation increasingly won't work. Too-clever-by-half positioning leaves voters cold. Never assume that just because a voter loathes the other lot, they've no where to go but to you.

So what'll be the magic glue needed to bind together that broad, election winning coalition? Authenticity.

Posted on 28 December 2009 by Douglas Carswell

Comments

In which case you'll need to speak to Mr Cameron and ask him to discuss the policies he is going to be fighting for at the General Election. His New Year speech was entirely free of anything you could use as a rallying cry to the disaffected Labour vote that went missing last time around. Warm fuzziness is not leadership.

Posted on 28 December 2009 17:37 by JohnRS

As an erstwhile Conservative voter, I've just read David Cameron's New Year message. Frankly, I remain totally unimpressed as it tells me absolutely nothing that I want to know.
I am aware that there is a reluctance to say anything, particularly with regards to solving the country's financial situation, as Labour will shout "Tory cuts". However, most of my acquaintances want to know in considerably more detail what the Tories are proposing, and I'm sure any decent publicist could shout "Labour waste" and, more to the point, give plenty of examples. Perhaps a daily example of Labour waste, each day between now and the election might get the electorate agog waiting for the next instalment (dare I say, as in the case of MP's expenses!).
But regrettably, so far there has been nothing substantial, and I suspect many people won't even bother to post the postal ballot form delivered to their door.

Posted on 28 December 2009 17:51 by English Pensioner

Mr Carswell, we Conservatives elected an 'heir to Blair' as our leader so is it surprising that we're getting 'The Fourth Way' as our election strategy.

Posted on 28 December 2009 18:35 by wonderfulforhisage

DC: "Never assume that just because a voter loathes the other lot, they've no where to go but to you"

Hopefully a certain Mr David Cameron will be reading this particular blog.

Posted on 28 December 2009 19:57 by APL

Policies,

That's what the Tories need. You might even get elected if you also had policies that the majority wanted too. Out of EU an end to the tax scam that is global warming, tax incentives for private business.

I read seriously today that the Oldies company Saga are under threat from EU anti ageism directives, you couldn't make it up, you really couldn't and still Gordon, Dave and Nick want to stay in the socialist mad house that is the EU.

Posted on 28 December 2009 21:25 by libertarian

Political activists continue to support the Conservatives faithfully, as do I. But I grow increasingly concerned about the discontent mutterings of Conservative voters who aren't directly involved with the party.

I think you're right, its time to stop the strategic cleverness and demonstrate powerful conservative principles. Otherwise a landslide win will become a tiny majority - or worse.

Posted on 29 December 2009 12:02 by Steve John Tierney

As you'll see from my reply (#1 above) I am one of the "Conservative voters who aren't directly involved with the party" referred to by Steve John Tierney. I'm looking forward to voting for the Conservative Party next year - if it appears on the ballot paper. Currently I only see a shadow of the Conservative Party I used to support so it is by no means certain that I will give it my vote this time.

So my mutterings are indeed discontented and, I fear, will remain so.

Posted on 29 December 2009 16:09 by JohnRS

Thankfully we live in an age of blogging where you can deliver your message straight to those in your constituency. I hope you and other MP's like John Redwood will make it very clear what you'll be working towards in the next 5 years.

If you're consistent now with your message of limited government, a few years down the line, it will have a much larger appeal. Hopefully it won't take you as long as it took Ron Paul!

Posted on 30 December 2009 08:25 by Jamess

I agree with current policy of not disclosing detailed plans as the slimeballs of Nuliebour would only nick them - don't give them the opportunity!

However an indication of aversion to the Global Warming/Ocean Acidification/ Climate Change propaganda would be useful as would stronger hints of disatisfaction with Europe together with some hints that there would be a reduction of the current statism from which we all suffer (including smokers and motorists) could be helpful - but 'Dave' gives the impression that he believes in it all...

Posted on 30 December 2009 12:24 by Pete

We do need authenticity - people with principles representing their constituents, instead of puppets doing the executive's bidding.
The fall in turnout shows that voters have been fed up with triangulation and ya boo politics for a long time. The expenses scandal was the last straw.
When MPs follow the party line in all things, it is clear that they lack personal principals. We need more MPs with the courage to stand up for what they believe rather than regurgitate prepared soundbites.

Posted on 30 December 2009 22:07 by Deborah

Does Mr. Cameron imagine that anyone is going to believe anything he produces as policies after his u-turn on the European referendum?

Posted on 31 December 2009 17:36 by Mark Forster

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